Well, what do you do when you’re faced with a volcano that’s never erupted in historic time? Sometimes those are the most dangerous ones. We’re interested now in moving to more physics-based forecasting, in the way that weather forecasting has gone from being very empirically driven to very complex numerical calculations.Įmpirical forecasts work very well in volcanoes that erupt frequently because you’re able to collect a lot of data and see patterns. Volcano forecasting like what we saw at Kilauea is real, but it’s not foolproof. We can measure ground deformation from space with radar satellites as well. Very precise GPS units measured the motion of the volcano to millimeter level accuracy and tilt meters measured how the ground was tilting. ![]() Geological Survey (USGS) saw that earthquakes were migrating into this area and the ground was changing shape. How did geologists know this eruption was coming? Did they have a real volcano forecast? Road access to that area is limited, so if it cuts the roads, people who live south of that are pretty much isolated. Starting on Wednesday, the eruption shifted to the east, through what we call the East Rift Zone, and moved closer to people. It had been erupting in very sparsely populated areas those areas were overrun by lava flows a long time ago. It’s been erupting more or less continuously since 1983, with pauses and some changes in behavior. Kilauea has been erupting slowly for years without being a threat to people and their homes. ![]() The lava lake at the summit of Kilauea dropped to more than 700 feet below the crater rim in just a few days.
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